Oregon St. Vs. Arizona: What To Expect

Before I contribute my prediction and pregame analysis of the Oregon St. vs Arizona game I think it's important to note that all Oregon fans should be rooting for Stanford to beat California tomorrow. As I mentioned last week, if Stanford can beat Cal then Oregon would be a Holiday Bowl lock regardless of the outcome next week against Oregon St. A loss to Stanford for Cal would have the Bears finishing with 4 conference losses and the worst Oregon can finish is with 3 conference losses hence the "lock" of the Holiday Bowl. The reason I mention this is that the result of the Cal/Stanford game will be known before the kickoff of the Beaver game, and if Cal does end up losing all Duck fans should root for Oregon St. to beat the Wildcats...yeah I know...I can't believe I typed that either. Let me bullet point this "supreme" scenario so that I don't contribute to your head exploding:

1. Cal loses tomorrow and achieve 4 conference losses. Oregon fans cheer with girl school glee.
2. Oregon State beats Arizona and still has the Rose Bowl in sight.
3. Oregon beats Oregon State next week and again Oregon fans cheer with girl school glee.
4. Oregon fans then proceed to gloat more than normal because the Ducks take the Holiday Bowl while the Beavers fall from grace to the Sun Bowl.

If Oregon St. was to lose tomorrow it would make the Holiday Bowl much harder for the Ducks to achieve since the winner would end up taking that game. Ultimately, Oregon just needs to win the Civil War...and it would be nice if Cal got beat too.

Ok, enough with the scenarios. The Wildcat/Beaver game has had me excited to sit around, watch College Football and do absolutely nothing since last weekend when I briskly walked out of the Oregon game wondering what in the hell happened in the second half. Then I realized that Arizona is a very good team and that Oregon just beat them...and Oregon St. hasn't. A lot has been made this week about Jaquizz Rodgers being the gamebreaker for the Beavers and whether the Arizona defense can stop him. What nobody has been talking about is Arizona's own midget tailback in Keola Antolin. I'm sure all Duck fans remember him considering he scored two touchdowns in last weeks game and was getting lost in translation around the goal line. I thought about sending Antolin a "thank you" card for dropping a critical pass in the game when Arizona was trying to convert on 4th and 4. If he catches that pass Oregon may have lost, but he didn't so it's a moot point. Arizona practices against a "Quizz" clone everyday in practice so why wouldn't they be able to contain him during the game? Before the season started I remember reading articles from the Oregonian that said the Beaver defense couldn't handle "Quizz" and he repeatedly tore them up in practice. I'm sure that type of info. would make Mike Stoops feel all warm and fuzzy considering Antolin has the ability to do exactly the same thing.

In last year's contest in Corvallis the Wildcat's rushed for a TOTAL of 9 yards...yeah that's right...9. Tuitama threw 3 picks in the game and Oregon State won 31-16. I think it's safe to say that Arizona's offense, and their team as a whole, has come a long way since last years meeting. Oregon State won't have the same success they did last year against Arizona's running attack and if they try to sell out to stop the run I do expect Tuitama to pick them apart through the air. Sean Canfield was the quarterback during last year's game and it appears that he may be the signal caller for tomorrow's game as well. From what I heard on the radio today Lyle Moevao didn't practice yesterday and is considered a "game time decision" due to a shoulder injury he suffered against Arizona St.

The deciding factor for the game will be whether the Beavers will be able to stop Rob Gronkowski. He is a large target and the Ducks certainly had no answer for him. Gronkowski always seemed to be the last resort for Tuitama when pressure was coming, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Beavers pick him off at least once while he tries to force a pass to him. "Quizz" will get his 32 carries for 120 yards and two touchdowns simply because it's what I would expect from him at this point...he is the second coming of Jesus after all.

Here's some interesting statistics regarding Arizona being the 2.5 point favorite for tomorrow's game:

• The Wildcats score on average 42.2 points at home and 37.2 on the road.
• They allow an average of 30.6 points per game on the road and 14.8 at home.
• The Beavers score on average 46.6 points at home and 27.6 points on the road. This stat is a bit skewed since Oregon State had the luxury of playing Washington State at home and hanging 66 points on them. Arizona played them away.
• They allow an average of 26.2 points per game on the road and 17.4 at home.
  

PREDICTION: Oregon State will win this week regardless of who as at QB. They are a team on a mission, just like Oregon was last year, but I highly doubt they will have a game altering injury take place. Oregon State 24 - Arizona 20.