On The Eve Of The Civil War: Post #2

Well, in less than 36 hours the regular season will come to an end for the Ducks and Beavers. I will either be drinking myself into a celebratory stupor for an Oregon victory or drinking to erase all memory of an Oregon loss...hopefully it's not the latter. The main topic of concern I've had with this Oregon State team isn't their offense this year...even with "Quizz" they haven't scored at will, but rather just hang around long enough to close out games. My concern lies in their defense and what they plan to do to stop Oregon. As I've mentioned previously to close friends (so bear with me if this is repetitive) the Beavers rely heavily on a pass rush from their defensive ends Victor Butler and Slade Norris. Should Oregon be concerned with this? Yes and No. Norris and Butler are both very good players, but their skills really work against a drop back passer who they can always locate. Masoli is so mobile, maybe even too much at times, and therefore will evade them repeatedly. After watching the Beavers this year they make every attempt to bring their D-ends on a heavy pass rush, and maybe this is too simple, but it seems like Masoli would simply be able to step up in the pocket and challenge the Beaver linebackers to make a play. When the Beavers have played mobile quarterbacks this year the results are somewhat astounding:

1) Penn State: QB Darryl Clark: Had 5 rushes for 61 yards and a touchdown. Even had a long run of 24 yards...his mobility stressed the Beaver defense and made the linebackers make plays. Needless to say....they didn't.

2) Utah: Brian Johnson: Had 11 rushes for 11 yards and a long of 15. Those numbers aren't very good, but they opened the passing game where he went 17-20 for 201 and 2 TD's. If I recall, free safety and Pac-10 defensive player of the week Greg Laybourne got torched repeatedly on the final drive of that game that lead to the Beaver loss.

The closest the Beavers have come to playing a true "spread" offense this year is against Penn St. and they got absolutely dismantled. Utah runs a version of the spread as well, but their execution was lacking throughout nearly the entirety of the game and they still were able to win. My point: the spread offense limits the Beavers strengths and makes their linebackers (who aren't exceptionally quick) make plays repeatedly in space.

We've all heard that the Beavers have the 2nd best rush defense in the Pac-10, that's no lie, but like all statistics they can be skewed...this is no exception. What competition at running back have the Beavers played against this year? It's been sub-par at best...just like the Pac-10 has been. Here's a breakdown of the Beaver's opponents and their rushing ability.

1) Stanford - Toby Gerhart rushes for 140 on 19 carries while Stanford as a team rushes for 210. Stanford is currently ranked 22nd in the nation in total rushing offense.

2) Penn State - Evan Royster rushes for 141 on 17 carries while Penn State as a team rushes for 239. Penn State is ranked 15th in the nation in total rushing offense.

3) Hawaii - They rush for 50 yards as a team and are currently ranked 103rd in rushing offense.

4) USC - They only attempted 22 rushes for 86 yards since they were trailing the whole game. USC is ranked 18th in total rushing offense.

5) Utah - Attempted 36 rushes for 138 yards. Utah is ranked 43rd in total rushing offense.

6) Washington St. - Attempted 42 carries for 53 yards. Washington St. is ranked 111th in total rushing offense.

7) Washington - 28 attempts for 101 yards...even from Washington! Washington is ranked 108th in total rushing offense.

8) Arizona State - 32 carries for 78 yards. The Sun Devils are ranked 107th in total rushing offense.

9) UCLA - 27 carries for 48 yards. UCLA is ranked 116th in the nation in total rushing offense.

10) Cal - Jahvid Best rushes 15 times for 116 yards and a TD. Outside of spectacular special teams plays by the Beavers the Golden Bears very well might have won that game. Cal is ranked 51st in total rushing offense.

11) Arizona - Keola Antolin rushes 25 times for 114 yards and a TD. Arizona should have won this game if they had coaches that could think themselves out of a wet paper bag. Arizona is ranked 42nd in rushing offense.

12) Oregon - Ranked 6th in overall rushing offense...result TBD.

Nationally, Oregon State is ranked #22 against the run, but they have played some seriously pathetic opponents that are one-dimensional at best. To summarize that mountain of information up there ^^^^ here is the info. I want you to come away with:

• This year Oregon State is 1-2 against teams ranked Top 25 or better in total rushing offense (Penn State, Stanford and USC). Their lone victory was against USC and perhaps that was a total fluke.

• This season the Beavers have played 5 opponents that are ranked 100th or above in total rushing offense. They have won all 5...which isn't surprising. Oh, and there are only 118 division one teams...that makes it even worse.
  

PREDICTION: Based simply off of rushing statistics I will say that Oregon wins tomorrow. Keep in mind that Oregon State didn't miraculously get rid of its defensive front seven and swap it out with new guys after the first two games of the year...they simply played weaker opponents that are inept or average at running the football. Analysis of quarterbacks, defenses and special teams is a moot point...or so I hope!

Oregon - 38 / Oregon State - 27