Attention Pac-10: Be Scared Of The Holiday Bowl

Congratulations Oregon. You officially saved your football season yesterday in one of the rainiest contests I've attended in a long time. 7-3 sounds a lot better than 6-4, and with Arizona and Oregon St. lurking just around the corner a win in November was more than needed. I think I'm still having a hard time digesting the fact that Oregon won the game with six seconds left and that's after turning the ball over 4 times. There's no doubt that Jeremiah Masoli is a work in progress, but after this 25 yard run with 1:20 left in the game I don't think there's any doubting why he's playing instead of Roper. When he was forced to throw he did just that, and going 11/21 for 144 yards and a TD is a much needed boost for the team and his confidence. I get annoyed when people say he "can't" throw, but I think it's along the lines of "does he really HAVE to throw?" Stanford couldn't stop Oregon's running attack yesterday, and it seems like half the time when Oregon does throw the ball the wide receivers don't catch it anyways. Masoli only needed to throw on occasion, but when Blount and Johnson combine for 225 yards on the ground passing the ball needed to be an afterthought anyways. If Duck fan didn't notice yesterday, it did rain for about 85% of the game and those conditions aren't exaclty condusive to airing the ball out. Another positive point is that Masoli did gain more yards through the air than Tavita Pritchard too (He went 15/22 for 138 yards and score). And more importantly, the Ducks beat a Stanford team that was 5-4 yesterday...they finally notch a win against a team that HAD a winning record.

So what does this game mean for postseason play? Here's how the top half of the Pac-10 standings shape up:

1) USC - 6-1
2) Oregon State - 5-1
3) Oregon - 5-2
4) Arizona - 4-2
5) California 4-2

Oregon State and California face off this next weekend in a game that has Rose Bowl implications for the Beavers and Holiday Bowl hopes for the Bears. USC is hoping that Oregon St. wins out so they can play in a BCS Bowl other than the Rose, but ultimately I think USC will end up facing off against the Nittany Lions in Pasadena. Oregon State gets to face off against the upper echelon of the Pac-10 now, and I don't think they can beat Cal, Arizona and Oregon all in a row. The last month has been good to the Beavers considering they've won 4 games in a row, but those games have come against teams that are a combined 7 and 30. That wasn't a typo...7 AND 30! Oregon, Arizona and Cal are a combined 19-9...that's much stiffer competition for a birth in the Rose Bowl, and if the Beavers can make it through unscathed they may deserve to play in the game...but who really wants to watch a rematch of Penn St. vs Oregon State? You know the BCS committee doesn't want to see that considering the first outcome. USC vs Penn St. is a much more attractive offering, and I won't be surprised if that's the matchup we ultimately see.

So that leaves Cal, Arizona, Oregon and Oregon St. duking it out for the Holiday Bowl. With the way the Ducks are playing this year I think it would be in their best interest to defer that game due to the opponent that they would face. Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma are all in the Big 12 South, and if Texas Tech beats Oklahoma on the 22nd (Tech won last years meeting and they have a bye week to prepare) they will probably beat Missouri in the Big 12 title game and play for the national title. That leaves either Oklahoma or Texas to play for the Holiday Bowl. Texas is easily a #1 team and Oklahoma isn't far behind. I think the Holiday Bowl opponent is exponentially more difficult than that of the Rose Bowl, and I think it's safe to say that the Pac-10 runner up would likely get beaten handily. The Sun Bowl and Emerald Bowl opponents are much more favorable, and if Oregon wins out and plays in the Holiday Bowl I won't be complaining...but I can't say that I will be expecting a victory.

RECRUITING NEWS: It's too early to say whether Oregon has received any commitments from this weekends highly touted recruits, and Bryce Brown attended the basketball game this afternoon so his visit hasn't even ended yet. I'm sure I'll hear more later in the week. Unfortunately, it seems Oregon may be losing another recruit. Four star wide receiver, Diante Jackson, may be switching his commitment. Per a Rivals interview he says:

"Looking back, I feel like I kind of made my decision too early. I have to call [Oregon head] coach Mike Bellotti and their coaches and let them know how I feel about stuff." Some Rivals insiders are saying that his decision to decommit may be based on being closer to his friends rather than Oregon becoming a more run oriented team. Oregon's emphasis on running is more predicated on the quarterback situation anyway, and if he was to change his commitment based on what he's seen the last month I'm not sure it's in the best interest that he's a Duck. With the way kids change their minds all the time I can't say that I'm not surprised, and hopefully Oregon can find a kid that is 100% committed to the program. Garret Embry, Blake Cantu, Chris Harper, Dion Jordan, Drew Davis and even Jamere Holland will fill voids in the future...I'm not worried...yet.