The Midway Point: PAC-10 Analysis

Well, my 35-17 prediction of Cal over Arizona was so off base I feel embarrassed for even posting that yesterday. I guess I banked my hunch on Cal coming out firing since they had a bye week to prep for the Wildcats, and Arizona was coming off a heartbreaking loss to Stanford by 1 point. The quarterback situation at Cal only got more clouded yesterday as Nate Longshore played well for the first half, but later was replaced due to poor production in the second which could ultimately spell disaster for Bears. Wasn't it last year that after beating Oregon they proceeded to lose their last 6-7 due to quarterback woes? Here's the newest Pac-10 standings via ESPN.

1. USC: 3-1
2. Arizona: 3-1
3. Oregon: 3-1
4. Oregon State: 3-1
5. California: 2-1
6. Stanford: 3-2
7. UCLA: 3-2
8. Arizona St.: 1-2
9. Washington: 0-4
10. Washington St.: 0-5

From the remaining teams left on USC's schedule the only one that could give them a hint of trouble is Arizona...mostly because that game will be played in Tuscon. The Trojans have really righted the ship since the first quarter of the Duck game. They haven't given up a touchdown in over 11 quarters and have held their last two opponents scoreless. The Wildcats and Trojans face off next weekend to decide whether SC will still have National Title implications intact.

What does that leave for the remaining teams? If USC somehow sneaks into the National Title then the runner up could possible be playing in the Rose Bowl, but only if the Rose Bowl committee deems the runner up in the PAC-10 worthy for that bid. I'm trying to figure out if any of the teams in the Pac-10 besides USC could hold their own in the Rose Bowl. Penn State and Ohio St. play this next weekend to dictate whether the Nittany Lions are on track for the title game, and if they win the Buckeyes will likely take the Rose Bowl. Could the Ducks, Beavers, Wildcats or Bears play them tough? At this point I'm not so sure. I think the Holiday Bowl actually could produce a tougher opponent than the Rose. Texas will likely play for the National Title if they continue to handle business (which isn't all that unlikely) and Oklahoma will probably get the Fiesta Bowl. So that leaves Missouri, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. for the Holiday Bowl. All 3 of those teams can score points like crazy and it could be a rough outing for whoever has to play them. Do I think the 2nd or 3rd place teams in the PAc-10 could beat Ohio St. or those aforementioned Big 12 Schools? No, not from what I've seen from those teams thus far but the next five weeks may persuade me otherwise.

I've been perusing ESPN's PAC-10 blog by Ted Miller and many Beaver fans are already claiming that they can win out and take the PAC-10 title from USC since they hold the tiebreaker over them. That's all fine and good, but Beaver fans forget that they have to play UCLA and Arizona away while also playing ASU, Cal and Oregon at home. Didn't UCLA just beat Stanford yesterday, and didn't Stanford beat the Beavers? The real fun of their PAC-10 schedule lies ahead, and the same is true for Oregon. With pivotal games of Arizona and Stanford at home, the schedule doesn't appear to be as bad as before. Having a bye week to rest and get healthy for the Sun Devils is always helpful, and the Ducks have the added benefit of a bye right before the Civl War game. While the Ducks will be resting that weekend the Beavers will have the joy of playing down in Arizona against a feisty Wildcat team, and who knows...Arizona may REALLY have something to play for at that point.

How good are the Cal Bears? They have the personnel to really play some solid football and I think Jahvid Best is one of the PAC-10's best running backs, but I think their QB situation will dictate whether this team can really accomplish anything. In many respects I think Cal and Oregon are identical teams. I'm predicting that Cal will beat either Oregon or Oregon St. just to further complicate the PAC-10 picture, but they will probably lose to Stanford or UCLA too. The Washington schools are a total joke and can't be taken seriously this year or probably for the remainder of this decade. Arizona St., although being 2-4, will beat somebody they shouldn't whether that be Oregon, Oregon St. or Arizona. Dennis Erickson seems to have Mike Riley's number and I can see that being a trap game for the Beavers (Ha, a Beaver trap!). Fortunately for the Beavers they will have a bye week to prep for the Sun Devils and the remaining pivotal games on their schedule. With that being said, I'll do some research this week and make my bowl game predictions for the Pac-10 and who they can expect to be playing in those games.